12/12/2023 0 Comments Goldilocks restaurant![]() ![]() No wonder they’re feeling confident (and likely have zero urge to move). Lots of lucky American homeowners locked in a sweet sub 3% 30 year mortgage rate during the pandemic. We’ll see if the June and July BoC rate increases affect GDP then. #5 Dolce Vitaon 07.28.23 at 2:50 pmĪnd that with Mining and oil and gas extraction being a -0.163% drag on GDP.Įxpected as Consumer Spending begins to peak in May, peaks out in June and goes down a bit in July. Class struggle on every corner that is going to get worse as fall approaches. Maybe it’s just my personality but I notice something completely different. ![]() Raccoons are no match for dogs and foxes! #3 Prince Polo on 07.28.23 at 2:38 pmĭoes that also mean that Garth is the new Ken?īut with better abs. Harold the Mortgage Broker is looking for some bears to protect his business. US banks are collapsing and merging….and engaging in outright corruption to stay solvent. Hope they leave some for us!” To be in touch or send a picture of your beast: ĩ1 comments ↓ #1 Alois on 07.28.23 at 2:35 pm The bears are eating the blackberries, even though they aren’t ripe yet. Landing soft, not hard.Īnything can happen, but today Goldilocks is the new Barbie.Ībout the picture: “Hi Garth, I know you usually have pictures of dogs and sometimes cats on your blog, even a bee,” writes Tami, “but how about bears? This picture was taken on the Sunshine Coast from my sister’s laundry room window. “While the headline growth figure raises the odds the Fed may have to consider further hikes later this year, slowing consumer spending and inflation may give them comfort that higher interest rates are having the desired effect on the economy.” Consumers have been impacted by inflation. “There’s no way Powell will crush employment a year from that ballot.”Įconomists at BMO don’t think the strong US growth will necessarily lead to more rate hikes. Historically, as Ed Pennock reminds us, the best quarter for stocks is the fourth one in the best year, which precedes the vote. The US is entering its critical presidential election cycle. Google delivered the sum of human understanding and knowledge to the phone in your pocket. Some say this could be the end of cancer and other dread diseases, for example, as machine learning supercharges medical advances. The way we work, think, are entertained, educated and innovate will irrevocably change. Advocates say it will change everything, just as the Internet did. Meanwhile, since ChatGPT hit us in November, AI is everywhere. In recent days over three-quarters of all the publicly-traded companies reporting earnings have beaten estimates. Growth (annualized) of 2.4% in the latest quarter is reasonably huge, and certainly greater than expected. The only fly doing a backstroke in this tasty soup? And a growing squad of economists think it may be a reality.Ĭonsider what Fed boss Jay Powell had to say when he dropped the latest (and maybe last) increase: “My base case is that we will be able to achieve inflation moving back to our target without the kind of really significant downturn that results in high levels of job losses that we’ve seen in some past, many past instances… The Federal Funds Rate is at a restrictive level now, so if we see inflation coming down, credibly, sustainably, then we don’t need to be at a restrictive level anymore…” This is the holy grail of monetary policy. Simply an economy slowing enough to tame inflation but not to spike unemployment or trigger recession. This feeds investor optimism that we shall, indeed, have a soft landing. And now we have news the US economy grew like a little weed in Q2, surpassing expectations. Canada’s unemployment rate hovers near an historic low. Employment has augmented – 3.8 million more jobs in the US. That regional banking scare is ancient history. The current corporate earnings season is rolling along just fine (Meta hit a home run). Consumer confidence in the States is at a two-year high. As in Canada, mortgage costs have soared along with consumer debt, credit card balance interest, car loans and business borrowings. The benchmark rate has travelled from 0% to 5.25% in one of the most aggressive tightening cycles in memory. This is all the more awesome since the US central bank, the Fed, has continued to jack up the cost of money. The crazy AI-inflated Nasdaq has swollen 37%. So far this year the S&P 500 is ahead 20%. The worst one-day market crash since the Great Depression, followed by an epic rebound. In case you missed it, the Dow had more winning days (until Thursday) in a row since any time way back in 1987. Is the storm over? And what’s the stock market been so happy about? ![]()
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